The Luck Equation:

Rethinking Luck

Luck is often seen as random, an accident of timing, a coincidence, or a stroke of fortune. But after reading Paul Graham and Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s The Black Swan, I’ve started to see it differently. Luck isn’t just chance. It grows from our experiences, the choices we make, and the risks we’re willing to take. In this sense, luck feels less like something that happens to you and more like something you cultivate.

Life as a Probability Game

Life often resembles a probability game. Every new experience, challenge, or project we engage with is like adding a ball to a basket. The more balls we collect, the higher the chance that a rare, unexpected event a “black swan” will land in our favor.

For example, a casual conversation at a conference might lead to a collaboration months later. A project you almost declined could teach you a skill that becomes essential in an entirely different context. Each choice to engage, even if it feels inconvenient or overwhelming at the time, increases the chances that something unexpected and valuable will happen. Conversely, turning down opportunities reduces the possibilities you create for yourself.

The Value of Saying Yes

Learning to say yes is more of a transformative process. Opportunities rarely arrive at convenient times. Sometimes they appear when we are already juggling multiple commitments or facing deadlines that feel impossible. There will be times when we nearly decline a project simply because our calendar feels full, only to realize later that the challenge taught us problem-solving and time management skills we would need in the future.

Saying yes doesn’t mean recklessness. It’s about curiosity and valuing growth over immediate comfort. Even when a project doesn’t go as planned, the lessons learned along the way are invaluable. Discomfort, I’ve realized, isn’t a warning it’s a signal that I’m moving in a direction that matters.

Becoming Comfortable with the Uncomfortable

Paradoxically, embracing challenges has made me more comfortable with being uncomfortable. I no longer fear uncertainty or stretching beyond my limits. Taking on multiple projects simultaneously, even when it feels impossible, has taught me resilience and adaptability. One week I might be learning coding for a side project while coordinating an event and preparing content for another task but the skills, insights, and relationships I gain are worth the temporary chaos.

It’s like planting seeds in a crowded garden. The growth might feel slow and tangled at first, but over time, each seed contributes to a richer, more fruitful harvest. The same is true for experience: each risk taken, each challenge faced, adds to the basket, increasing the probability that luck will find you.

Luck as a Product of Engagement

Luck isn’t magic. It comes from exposure, curiosity, and the willingness to step into the unknown. Life rewards those who actively participate, who refuse to shy away from opportunities simply because they feel inconvenient or risky. Rare, unpredictable events black swans remain beyond control, but we can prepare ourselves to meet them. Engagement, not passivity, creates the conditions where extraordinary opportunities can occur.

Learning from the Messy and Unexpected

I’ve seen this pattern in both small and large ways. A side project I almost ignored became a portfolio piece that opened doors months later. A casual coffee meeting led to a connection that reshaped a personal or professional trajectory. Even failures contribute to the basket, teaching lessons about timing, communication, or perseverance. Over time, these accumulated experiences create a foundation for luck to find you.

Embracing Uncertainty Without Fear

This mindset requires humility. Not every risk will succeed, and not every decision will produce immediate results. But stepping forward, engaging with uncertainty, and embracing new experiences is how we maximize the likelihood of encountering luck. It’s the difference between passively waiting for fortune and actively cultivating it.

I remember saying yes to a project that seemed overwhelming a collaboration that required skills I didn’t yet have. The first weeks were stressful, filled with mistakes and learning curves. But by the end, I had gained not only skills but confidence, connections, and insights that I could not have planned for. That’s the essence of this approach: you can’t control outcomes, but you can increase your exposure to the possibilities that matter.

The Journey Over the Outcome

Over time, this approach reshapes how we view opportunities, failures, and discomfort itself. What once felt like obstacles now feel like invitations to expand abilities, gather experiences, and prepare for the unexpected. Even slow or uncertain progress matters because each step adds to the basket, increasing the probability of extraordinary outcomes.

Ultimately, luck isn’t something that falls from the sky. It is created through curiosity, engagement, and the courage to face the unknown. Every challenge, project, or uncomfortable moment is an opportunity to grow and prepare for rare, meaningful events that can change everything. By embracing learning and risk, even in small doses, we shape our own fortune. The more we engage with life, the more opportunities we create for the extraordinary to find us.